the futures so bright - i got to wear shades - timbuk 3
Been a number of arguments of late about the state of the country and more specifically just how "bad or good" things are and will get. M accuses A and I of being the "last 2 optimists in Sri Lanka". Anyway A is going to publish an article soon enough and thought I would share with the blogosphere my own predictions.
So Personally these are my predictions (in 5 year blocks):
2007- 2012 Politics: War, more war and then war weariness. Somewhere around 2010/11 a truce (peace) declared giving an autonomous state in the North Province to be governed by the LTTE for 5 years without an election (similar to what was given in the Phillipines to the Moros Liberation Front). East rejoins the rest of the island and starts to develop. APC finally makes this proposal in 2008. Haggling about this occurs thru 2009-2010. Karuna arrested or killed in 2008/9.
Economics: 2008-9 – Relatively Dire GDP growth around 4% - but jobs created in south for Hambantota port. LKR 125 :USD 1, Inflation around 10%.
2010- 11: Hope emerges – GDP growth around 6%. Southern highway completed. South is a buzz – lots of new development. Plan for Hambantota to become southern commercial capital – LKR 130: 1 USD, inflation 13-14%.
2011-2012: the beginning of the boom years – GDP growth around 8%. FDI hits USD 1 Bio pa – Work starts on transforming Trinco.
20012-2017 Politics: North Stable and growing leaps and bounds. LTTE raises international bonds (which are oversubscribed). JVP are spent force but activism in
Economics: 2012-2014: Boom years – GDP growth at 10%pa. International airport planned for
2014-2017 : Reality starts to dawn – GDP growth at 6.5% - structural issues which have been ignored for years – bloated Government, Health, education start becoming the issue of the day.
2017-2022 Politics: Centre becomes an issue – what can be done to develop the
2022-2027 Politics: Jobs in
2027-2032 Politics: the central uprising –
6 comments:
LTTE bonds: height of optimism.
Personally I'd be happy if the war drags on without stability or peace. I don't want to see the North develop at all. The South has been quite alright for the past quater century and it'll be okay for the next. As long as the Tamils are suffering, I'm content with the price.
JVP isn't likely to fade away anytime soon. It has an uncanny ability to continually reinvent itself I wouldn't be surprised if Wimal Weerawansa becomes the president some day, although I'd prefer Udaya Gammanpila.
More positives:
Both Tamil and Sinhalese areas have at least experienced a semblance of democracy.
If the war does not go on for too long, memories of the workings of democracy may still be fresh, Tamils may still be amenable and experienced enough to work along these lines. If LTTE gets dictatorial and despotic in peace time, they will be more likely to protest loudly and effectively. Same with Sinhalese regions.
Contrast to Israel and Palestine: Palestinians, as far as I know, never had a chance since independence from British to elect their own leaders, so very new to Political game. Think there are more Tamil lawyers than Palestinian lawyers :)
Don't like the idea of an express way to Kandy. Especially if it's going to cause environmental damage...ie cutting through sides of hills etc. Could cause major earth slips etc. If government is still corrupt, they could just push the project before proper economic, environment and safety feasibility study.
Also, Israel more millitarised than Sri Lanka. They have compulsory army service. Sinhalese have experienced the good life, so less likely to want to part with it in current generations.
L, what ethnicity are you?
um...thats a weird question...Im sure I've seen your "distinct" comments on another blog. Anyway...I identified myself clearly as a Tamil with rich Malaysian cousins....and/or coolie Malaysian cousins...god bless them one and all ...you can choose!!!
thank god the LTTE was defeated eh? ;)
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